Quantitative Research

baseline_120m

Baseline: 120-month rolling window, 5 PCs, BARRA factors
@Pavanmirla  |  Generated: 24 February 2026  |  Data: 2004 – 2024

Configuration

PCA Window
120m
Components
5
Portfolios
10
Return (Signal)
ExBetaSizeLiquidity
Return (Backtest)
Total Return
Return Horizon
T+1 month

Methodology

Step 1
Load & Filter

Monthly BARRA factor exposures loaded. Stocks with all-NA factors excluded. Canada-class shares (gvkey suffix c/C) removed.

Step 2
Cross-Sectional Z-Score

Factor exposures are standardised cross-sectionally each month: subtract mean, divide by std. Prevents scale bias in PCA.

Step 3
Walk-Forward PCA

PCA fitted on a trailing 120-month window. Components applied to current month's universe. Sign-flip alignment ensures continuity across windows.

Step 4
Decile Backtest

Stocks sorted by PC score into 10 portfolios. Returns are T+1 forward (no look-ahead). Active = Decile − Universe mean. L/S = D1 − D10.

L/S Performance Summary (D1 − D10)

Annualised statistics for the long-short portfolio (top decile minus bottom decile, equal-weighted). Returns not adjusted for transaction costs.

PC Ann Return Ann Vol Sharpe Max DD Hit Rate Months
PC1 -6.54% 19.45% -0.336 -144.6% 46.0% 248
PC2 0.29% 19.44% 0.015 -93.54% 54.4% 248
PC3 0.55% 16.07% 0.034 -72.87% 51.6% 248
PC4 0.44% 11.17% 0.04 -43.92% 51.6% 248
PC5 4.29% 14.89% 0.288 -44.02% 50.8% 248

L/S Cumulative Return — All Components

Cumulative sum of monthly long-short returns. Click legend entries to toggle individual PCs.

PC1 Analysis

PC2 Analysis

PC3 Analysis

PC4 Analysis

PC5 Analysis

Factor Loadings — Latest Snapshot

Loadings are computed on a 120-month trailing window and updated monthly (walk-forward).